On Friday and Saturday in college football, championship weekend will take place. On Sunday Dec. 20, 2020, the final four will be announced for the two College Football Playoff semifinal games on New Year’s Day.
These seven games are the only ones that will have any bearing on the playoff:
No. 1 Alabama (10-0) vs. No. 7 Florida (8-2) (SEC Championship Game)
No. 3 Clemson (9-1) vs. No. 2 Notre Dame (10-0) (ACC Championship Game)
No. 14 Northwestern (6-1) vs. No. 4 Ohio State (5-0) (Big Ten Championship Game)
No. 5 Texas A&M (7-1) vs. Tennessee (3-6) (SEC Championship Game)
No. 10 Oklahoma (7-2) vs. No. 6 Iowa State (8-2) (Big 12 Championship Game)
No. 23 Tulsa (6-1) vs. No. 9 Cincinnati (8-0) (American Athletic Conference Championship Game)
Oregon (3-2) vs. No. 13 USC (5-0) (Pac-12 Championship Game)
The favorites in these games are as follows: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, and USC.
What each ranked team needs to do this weekend to make it into the CFP:
Alabama Crimson Tide: The Crimson Tide have been dominating all season, and have looked like the clear-cut best team in the sport. Even if Alabama were to be shocked by Florida, they would still be in the College Football Playoff.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Fighting Irish are almost a guaranteed shoo-in to the playoff, but one thing could keep Notre Dame out of the playoff in their first season as a member of the ACC. Even though the Fighting Irish defeated Clemson earlier in the season, it was without star quarterback Trevor Lawrence. With Lawrence back in the fold this time around, if Notre Dame was to get completely blown off the field on Saturday, they could find themselves on the outside looking in come Sunday. If the Irish were to lose close though, the ACC will have two teams in the playoff.
Clemson Tigers: Clemson has to beat Notre Dame and avenge their loss from a few months ago. If Clemson does not win, they will not be in the CFP no matter what else happens in the other games on championship weekend. The playoff committee would want to put a two loss Clemson into the playoff, but they would ultimately decide against it and give the spot to a more deserving team.
Ohio State Buckeyes: Ohio State has a win and in scenario facing them on Saturday. The Big 10 has jumped through hoops to make sure Ohio State had a conceivable path to make it into the playoff. The conference even changed the rules so teams only needed five games to play in the championship game, instead of the six that was the prerequisite to begin the season. With a win on Saturday, no matter the margin, the committee has shown they will put in Ohio State and decide to overlook their lackluster schedule, lack of games played, and more deserving teams.
Texas A&M Aggies: Texas A&M needs to win their game on Saturday against Tennessee, and then hope for some help. The easiest path for the Aggies is if either Clemson or Ohio State lose, and this would allow Texas A&M to be one of the four teams in the College Football Playoff. If all the favorites win, there is no path for Jimbo Fisher’s team into the playoff.
Iowa State Cyclones: The committee has shown since the first playoff rankings they have a certain affinity for Iowa State. Even though the team has two losses in the Big 12, one of the least respected “Power Five” conferences. The only way Iowa State gets in is if tremendous chaos ensues. The Cyclones would have to upset Oklahoma, have Notre Dame defeat Clemson, Northwestern defeat Ohio State, and Tennessee and Florida both win. This would upend the entire rankings, and it would allow Iowa State to squeak into the playoffs. A two-loss team has also never qualified for the playoff.
Florida Gators: Florida would have to shock the No.1-ranked Crimson Tide, and then have many of the favorites lose to make the playoff. Just as is the case with Iowa State, Northwestern, Tennessee, and Northwestern would all have to pull off the upset to give the Gators any chance. The Gators’ loss to the underperforming LSU Tigers last weekend may have destroyed their playoff chances, but there is still a chance to sneak in, albeit an unbelievably small one. The fact that a two-loss team has never made the playoff will be tough for the Gators to overcome, even with a win over Alabama.
Cincinnati Bearcats: The playoff committee has never shown an affinity to get a “Group of Five” team into the College Football Playoff, and 2020 has been no different. Even though Cincinnati can be an undefeated team, because they are not in a high-profile conference or a traditional power, a team that deserves at least a shot in the playoff will be left wondering what more they could have done.
Oklahoma Sooners: Oklahoma is favored in the Big 12 Championship Game, and even if they do end up winning, they are not going to make it into the playoffs. Oklahoma is ranked No. 10 heading into the weekend, and even if total bedlam ensues, six is too many spots to jump up for the Sooners to ultimately qualify for the CFP.
USC Trojans: USC will be handcuffed from making the playoff by a Pac 12 conference that has done the Trojans no favors. The conference started later than any other “Power Five” conference, and this put USC in a hole they were never able to recover from, even if they were to beat Oregon Friday and be an undefeated champion. This will be the first time an undefeated “Power Five” conference champion will miss out on the playoff, and USC will have no one else to blame except their conference.
Tulsa Golden Hurricanes: Tulsa has no path to make the playoff even if they were to win their conference championship. Tulsa is not in a conference conducive to having an opportunity to compete on the sports biggest stage. The only motivation Tulsa has against Cincinnati, and hope for an invite to a high-profile game so they can showcase their team to a national audience.
On Sunday, which four teams will be in the College Football Playoff?
Alabama
Clemson
Ohio State
Notre Dame
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